Lula da Silva’s victory in the October presidential elections. Voluntary exile of former President Jair Bolsonaro to the United States in late December on the eve of his successor’s inauguration; Invasion of Praça dos Três Poderes in Brasilia in January by Bolsonaro protesters unhappy with the election result. It cannot be denied that politics in Brazil have been in turmoil in recent months and public opinion has been deeply divided over the former metallurgist’s return to power, two decades after he was first elected. But the promises of these four years until the new presidential elections continue to cause doubts. Bolsonaro, a former army captain who, after many years as a controversial but insignificant member of parliament, was elected president in 2018, has a chance to return to the country, leading the right and, once again, embodying the anti-Lula and the anti-left. most Brazilians, to be candidates in 2026?
There is certainly no single answer. But in a recent lunchtime conversation at Cícero Bistrot, a new Lisbon restaurant that wants to help strengthen Luso-Brazilian relations, Christian Lynch, co-author of the book Populismo Reacionário: Ascensão e Legado do Bolsonarismo, offered his vision of the season. come, that is, the departure from the stage of the former president, whom I quote here: “The general expectation was that Bolsonaro, even defeated, as the maximum figure of the right, would become the leader of the opposition to Lula. That didn’t happen because he preferred to worry about leaving da Justiça, getting killed, and plotting a coup that would keep him in power. He preferred to leave Brazil for fear of imprisonment, which became more likely with the reactionary attempt on January 8.”
With a PhD in Political Science and professor at several Brazilian universities, Lynch, reflecting on the consequences of Bolsonaro’s removal, adds: “The result is that, given the leadership vacuum and the prospect of him being declared ineligible, the opposition leadership has already contested by the governors of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, and by former vice president, now senator, General Mourão. With the criminalization of extremism after the attempt, the Brazilian right, already entrenched, will tend to become less radical and populist. in the sky of Brazilian politics, Bolsonaro seems to have been a comet rather than a star.”
Between an openly left-leaning president and a right-wing-dominated Congress of Representatives, a mutual marking of the ground is already being contemplated in 2026, given that Lula bears most of the responsibility for smoothing internal divisions and restarting of the economy in external conditions much more difficult than those he encountered in 2003, when he finally came to power in his fourth attempt. But a return to some institutional normality, with left and right competing but without radicalism, can only be good news for Brazil. We’ll see if the informed analysis of Lynch, who spoke surrounded by the paintings of Brazilian modernist Cícero Dias that decorate Cícero Bistrot and are from the private collection of Paulo Dalla Nora Macedo, the restaurant’s owner and Luso enthusiast, is borne out. -Brazilian exchanges of ideas at the table.
its deputy director Diário de Notícias