by “I know we can turn this opportunity into a resounding success. And, regardless of the obstacles in the way, I know we will,” said then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on January 31, 2020. . That evening, the United Kingdom officially left the European Union after a long and tumultuous process. Three years after Brexit, the British regret it, the obstacles are harder to overcome than expected: the Covid-19 pandemic, the return of war in Europe, an economic crisis with record inflation and another policy, in which three tenants six months at No. 10 Downing Street. And even before completing 100 days as Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak is facing controversy, not forgetting the poisoned legacy that is the Northern Ireland Protocol.
In the 2016 referendum, Brexit won by 52% to 48%. Today, according to polls by the website WhatUKThinks.org, 58% would vote to be in the European Union, compared to 42% who preferred to stay out. Part of the change in opinion has to do with the change in the electorate – older voters, who mostly voted for Brexit, are dying off, while young people, now entering voting age, are against it. But it’s not just a demographic issue, there is a “Bregret” – a word that combines Brexit and regreti.e. repentance. A November poll by YouGov found that one in five who voted for Brexit had changed their mind.
Although the covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine are being cited as the main reason for the economic crisis – which saw inflation hit 11.1% in October (the highest in more than 40 years) – it is clear for many voters that Brexit is also to blame. The UK is the only G7 economy not yet back to pre-pandemic GDP levels, and government agency estimates say leaving the European Union would reduce British productivity by 4% in the long term.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt rejects the gloomy scenario, arguing that part of the negative picture is based on statistics that do not reflect the global view.. And he reiterated, last Friday, that Brexit freedoms made the new long-term economic plan possible.
The minister argues that it is necessary to look beyond the problems faced by companies in the short term, with more red tape for dealings with European neighbours, delays at the border or a lack of workers, and to see the “opportunities for the future”. The economy did better than expected in December and January, but the recession is not yet fully behind us.
Inflation brought an increase in the cost of living and an unprecedented wave of protests and strikes. Rishi Sunak marks his 100th day in government on Thursday, having weathered Liz Truss’s disastrous 44 days, but has to deal with resentment. A strike involving half a million workers is planned for teachers and transport and other sectors tomorrow, with the opposition portraying millionaire Sunak as far from reality. The polls give Keir Starmer’s Labor a lead of more than 20 points, with the Tories trying to avoid going to the polls earlier (January 2025).
To make matters worse for Sunak, the controversy surrounding his dismissal Nadhim Zahawi as chairman of the Conservative Party and minister without portfolio after it was revealed that he broke ministerial rules due to a lack of fiscal transparency. Zahawi, who was one of the founders of YouGov and a minister under both Johnson and Truss, paid a debt of about five million pounds to the tax authorities but did not disclose that he was under investigation – when this news broke he spoke to false attacks on her reputation.
He later claimed it was an “omission”, “unintentional”, but the Prime Minister is under pressure. The issue is whether or not he knew about the investigation into the minister. And the criticism is not only from the opposition. Among conservatives, he is under attack for the alleged speed of the official investigation he called for, with Zahawi’s defenders saying he did not have time to respond to the allegations (conclusions came in less than a week).
Sunak said yesterday that he acted quickly, appointing someone to investigate the case as soon as he learned of it and removed the minister when he received the findings, expressing his belief that he would be able to “bring integrity back to politics”.
This is the second minister to lose in less than 100 days (the other was Gavin Williamson), while there is also pressure to remove MP Dominic Raab, accused of bullying. He denies it.
In each case, Sunak inherited problems of the past, just as the Northern Ireland Protocol inherited after Brexit. Although Northern Ireland left the European Union with the rest of the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland remains in the single market in order to avoid a physical border with the Republic of Ireland. But unionists complain that this opens a rift with the rest of the UK and, Conservatives, that it leaves the region still under the control of the European courts.
London and Brussels admit it is not working and are negotiating, but without a deal ahead of the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreements, which sealed peace. Meanwhile, Northern Ireland remains without a government after Sinn Fein nationalists won elections for the first time and DUP unionists refused to enter the executive as established by the Peace Accords signed in 1998. Another headache for Sunak.
susana.f.salvador@dn.pt
Corrected news. The original version said that leaving the European Union would, in the long run, reduce the British economy by 4% when it came to productivity.
