Champion FC Porto? Odds and history “prevent”… with one exception

THE Porto once again won a Clasico against Sporting last Sunday, keeping their pursuit of leaders Benfica, who are five points behind, steady. With 14 rounds to go, the big challenge for the dragons will involve “faking” logic and they will end up celebrating in May. However, what are the chances of that happening?

In this sense, the gate FiveThirtyEight provided a table of all the facts title contenders need to know if they believe in the logic of the odds. As for FC Porto, being the team closest to the top, the success rates are not very encouraging, nor is the history itself, although the recent past even brings us an exception to the rule. But let’s go.

The Dragons are already eight points clear of rivals Benfica and, with slips at both ends, the gap is five points in the 20th round. Looking at the forecasts, FC Porto will be able to reduce this advantage, but only to four points, away from the intended recovery to reach the second league.

With a 27% chance of finishing the season in first place, the dragons see the opponent’s rate at 70%, with very little time for Sporting de Braga (2%) and Sporting (less than 1%) to dream of leadership.

Club prescribed points Chance for 1st place Chance for 2nd place Chance for 3rd place Chance for 4th place Chance for 5th place
1st Benfica 84 70% 25% 4% 0%
2nd FC Porto 80 27% 60% 11% two%
3rd Sp. Braga 72 two% 13% 54% 31%
4th Sporting 68 two% 31% 63% 3%

What does the recent past say?

Coming back from a five-point deficit with 14 games to play is not easy, but not impossible either. In fact, both Porto and Benfica have benefited from this recovery recently.

Going back to 2018/19, at this point, the Eagles trailed with three fewer points (47) than the Dragons (50), having ended up leading the league by finishing two points ahead of the opposition (87 to 85). ).

Revenge would appear next season. On the 20th day FC Porto had the same 50 points and played against Benfica who had 54. opponent.

Taking the two exceptions out of the equation in recent years, the trend was clear. The team that leads with 14 laps to go, whether it scores more or less points than the direct competitor in the final stretch, will hardly leave the position it occupies. It is, therefore, something that does not encourage FC Porto’s prospects.

Interestingly, last season, at this time, Sergio Conceicao’s side had six more points compared to Sporting (56 vs. 50), having finished the league by exactly the same distance (91 vs. 85).

Also read: Blue flame destroys Amorim’s “laboratory”. Sporting-FC Porto scores

Also read: FC Porto show who’s in charge and let Sporting see top spot ‘at a straw’

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